Bellatore Blogs

Point of the Week

Timely and relevant market analysis through the lens of Bellatore’s four-point analytical process.

If You Want to Know Where Stocks are Headed, Don’t Ask the Economy May 22, 2013 - Stocks should do well when the economy does well. This seems like a no brainer. After all, a strong economy should mean that more profit and growth is available to corporations, and that should make its way down to shareholders. This, in turn, should reward investors who pursue broad market exposures offered through ETFs like […]
Another Look at Valuations January 29, 2013 - Why Playing Defense May Be More Expensive The sideways market paradox continues. While earnings, cash balances and other corporate metrics have improved dramatically over the last decade, the market itself has been range bound and volatile due to the excessive valuations that resulted from the tech boom. To be sure, we are 12 years into […]
The Long Slog Toward a Cheaper Market December 11, 2012 - Over time, earnings and stock prices move together. The short term is more of an educated guess that is probably best left to technical analysis. With earnings season wrapping up, it makes sense to look at where we’ve been, where we are, and where we may go as we move into 2013. The chart below […]
The Amazing, Shrinking Fixed Income Yield Continues its Downward Slide October 31, 2012 - While Treasury yields bounced a bit in Q3, the longer-term trend has clearly been down. Chart 1 shows the very well defined declining range of Treasury yields over the last 20 years. Yields currently sit near the bottom of the long-term trading range and very near generational lows. Chart 1: Long Term Treasury Yield Decline […]
It’s the (REAL, not the financial) economy, stupid! September 26, 2012 - “Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook… […]
Put Your Money Where Your Mouth is: Polls versus Prediction Markets in Predicting Election Results September 12, 2012 - Did you hear? There’s an election coming. Just kidding. I’m sure that, by now, most readers feel as if they’ve been in a pinball machine, being bombarded from side to side with rhetoric from both political aisles as well as their PACs and the media. Today, we look at the current odds as they stand […]
Dividend Focused ETFs Don’t Offer a Free Lunch, but They Let You Snack along the Way September 7, 2012 - There is no free lunch in investing! These words ring true, on average, over time for most investors. After all, investing is a trade off between growth and price as well as risk and return. The higher the expected future growth of a stock, the more likely it will be that investors have to pay a higher price (P/E) to get a piece of that future growth. Consider Amazon (AMZN) with year-over-year revenue growth of about 29%. Clearly, it is a great growth story, and it can be all yours...
Gold Bullion is Beginning to Shine (Again) August 31, 2012 - The fundamental case for gold has been challenged by many this year. Obviously, the recent price action has been more difficult to read. But gold has once again caught the eye of investors following the accommodative statements from the ECB and our own Fed.

Weekly Insight

Each week, Kane Cotton offers client friendly common-sense observations on business, the markets and the economy.

Are Stocks for Pessimists? December 22, 2016 - If we could make a broad statement about stock investors, it would be that they have to be generally optimistic about the future. If stock investors didn’t feel that the future would be better than the past, then stock investments are most likely not for them. All things equal, companies have to do better than […]
Interest Rates: Up, Up and Away!?! December 8, 2016 - In what is widely referred to as the Trump Bump, U.S. stocks have been moving up since the surprise U.S. Presidential election victory of Donald Trump. Stocks have been advancing on the hopes that some of the President-elect’s policies may make it into law. Most notably, lower corporate taxes, reduced industry regulation and infrastructure spending […]
Any Gas Left in the Market’s Tank? December 2, 2016 - Leading up to the U.S. Presidential election, many voters anticipated that the markets would rally following a Clinton victory and fall following a Trump victory. Trump won, but markets didn’t fall. Instead, they rallied and rallied in a big way. Many U.S. stock sectors advanced on hopes that President-elect Trump’s policies would spur faster economic […]
The Unexpected Trump Reaction November 17, 2016 - “I can say with 100% certainty that there is a really good chance we could see a huge, huge correction.” These were the words that billionaire Mark Cuban told CNN host Erin Burnet back on May 16, 2016, to describe what would happen to the stock market if Donald Trump won the election. Trump won, […]
Why Can’t We Be Friends? November 8, 2016 - It is decision week in America. With President Obama termed out and Joe Biden not running for office, a new administration will be elected into the white House this week. It doesn’t seem like a stretch, but this seems to have been the longest and most controversial U.S. election we have had in some time […]
U.S. Growth Springs Forward In Q3 November 4, 2016 - In times of market volatility, we advise investors to focus on the big picture. Right now, the big picture is full of many bright spots. The biggest bright spot was announced last week when the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released the first estimate of third quarter U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). They reported that […]
Paltry Increase in Social Security for 2017 October 25, 2016 - Last week the Social Security Administration announced a slight increase in Social Security benefits for the New Year. After a year with no increase in social security benefits, any increase is welcomed, but the coming year’s increase won’t pay for much more than a cup of coffee. The monthly Social Security and Supplemental Security Income […]
Where should interest rates really be? September 29, 2016 - Last week, the Federal Reserve pleased global stock markets by leaving interest rates unchanged. The Fed felt that, even though the unemployment rate is low, the labor market still had some slack and that inflationary pressures were still not strong enough. In a nutshell, Chair Janet Yellen stated, “We judged that the case for an increase has strengthened but decided for the time being to wait for further evidence of continued progress toward our objectives."
Why are investors so glum? September 22, 2016 - Investors are not excited about stock investing right now. In the September 15, 2016, sentiment report by The American Association of Individual Investors, they found the following: 27.9% of investors were bullish on the market moving higher (versus a long-term average of 38.5%) 36.1% of investors were neutral on the market (versus the long-term average […]
Quiet Market Finally Speaks Up September 15, 2016 - The streak is over. Last Friday, U.S. stocks ended their streak of trading within the narrow range. Prior to Friday’s decline of -2.5% (Source: Yahoo! Finance), the S&P 500 Index went 43 trading days without moving up or down 1% in a single trading day. Since 1990, there were only 12 other time periods where […]