Point of the Week

If You Want to Know Where Stocks are Headed, Don’t Ask the Economy

May 22, 2013

Stocks should do well when the economy does well. This seems like a no brainer. After all, a strong economy should mean that more profit and growth is available to corporations, and that should make its way down to shareholders. This, in turn, should reward investors who pursue broad market exposures offered through ETFs like […]


Another Look at Valuations

January 29, 2013

Why Playing Defense May Be More Expensive The sideways market paradox continues. While earnings, cash balances and other corporate metrics have improved dramatically over the last decade, the market itself has been range bound and volatile due to the excessive valuations that resulted from the tech boom. To be sure, we are 12 years into […]


The Long Slog Toward a Cheaper Market

December 11, 2012

Over time, earnings and stock prices move together. The short term is more of an educated guess that is probably best left to technical analysis. With earnings season wrapping up, it makes sense to look at where we’ve been, where we are, and where we may go as we move into 2013. The chart below […]


The Amazing, Shrinking Fixed Income Yield Continues its Downward Slide

October 31, 2012

While Treasury yields bounced a bit in Q3, the longer-term trend has clearly been down. Chart 1 shows the very well defined declining range of Treasury yields over the last 20 years. Yields currently sit near the bottom of the long-term trading range and very near generational lows. Chart 1: Long Term Treasury Yield Decline […]


It’s the (REAL, not the financial) economy, stupid!

September 26, 2012

“Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook… […]


Put Your Money Where Your Mouth is: Polls versus Prediction Markets in Predicting Election Results

September 12, 2012

Did you hear? There’s an election coming. Just kidding. I’m sure that, by now, most readers feel as if they’ve been in a pinball machine, being bombarded from side to side with rhetoric from both political aisles as well as their PACs and the media. Today, we look at the current odds as they stand […]


Dividend Focused ETFs Don’t Offer a Free Lunch, but They Let You Snack along the Way

September 7, 2012

There is no free lunch in investing! These words ring true, on average, over time for most investors. After all, investing is a trade off between growth and price as well as risk and return. The higher the expected future growth of a stock, the more likely it will be that investors have to pay a higher price (P/E) to get a piece of that future growth.

Consider Amazon (AMZN) with year-over-year revenue growth of about 29%. Clearly, it is a great growth story, and it can be all yours…


Gold Bullion is Beginning to Shine (Again)

August 31, 2012

The fundamental case for gold has been challenged by many this year. Obviously, the recent price action has been more difficult to read. But gold has once again caught the eye of investors following the accommodative statements from the ECB and our own Fed.